Weekly Newsletter

The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune.

If there was only one thing to know about the mortgage market this week, it would be that Wednesday's inflation data prompted one of biggest single day increases in mortgage rates in decades. If there was a 2nd thing to know, it's that the first thing is arguably all that matters.

Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions.

With markets only open 3.5 days and without any top tier economic reports to influence rates, this week could have arguably been viewed as a 9 day weekend for traders. Next week, not so much...

This week's main event was Wednesday's Fed announcement. A rate cut was wholly out of the question, but markets wanted to know how recent inflation surprises changed the Fed's outlook. Turns out, not much!