Weekly Newsletter

For 3 months, they were almost inseparable. Then in June, they went their separate ways. Now oil and rates are back together following the end of the U.S./Iran ceasefire.

Last week's newsletter flagged an uncommonly high level of quarter-end trading volatility as a key contributor to a surprise mid-week rate spike. We got another dose of that drama this week, but things calmed down by the end.

This week offered a welcome reminder that not every improvement in mortgage rates requires a dramatic headline.

Since March 1st, the Iran war has been the primary reason for movement and volatility in the bond market. Pre-war motivations were woefully muted. That changed a bit with the jobs report two weeks ago and it changed again with this week's Fed announcement. Thankfully, the damage was quickly reversed.

Since late March, markets have had repeated opportunities to play deal or no deal when it comes to ending the Iran war. Sometimes we won. Sometimes we lost. This week's installment was touch and go, but ultimately a winner.